http://www.norges-bank.no/
Monetary policy report 4/16
with financial stability assessment
Index
Chart 1.1 Global GDP and GDP for trading partners
Chart 1.2 CPI for trading partners
Chart 1.3 Commodity prices
Chart 1.4 Market-based inflation expectations five years ahead
Chart 1.5 Crude oil spot and futures prices
Chart 1.6 Oil inventories in the OECD
Chart 1.7 Yields on 10-year government bonds
Chart 1.8 Selected equity indices
Chart 1.9 Policy rates and estimated forward rates
Chart 1.10 Money market rates for trading partners
Chart 1.11 Oil price and import-weighted exchange rate index (I-44)
Chart 1.12 Three-month Nibor spread
Chart 1.13 Risk premium on new and outstanding bond debt for Norwegian banks
Chart 1.14 Lending rates to companies and households
Chart 1.15 Residential mortgage interest rates and funding costs
Chart 1.16 GDP for mainland Norway and regional network's indicator for output growth
Chart 1.17 Probability of a fall in economic activity
Chart 1.18 Output growth in regional network
Chart 1.19 Households' consupmtion of goods and services
Chart 1.20 Consumer confidence
Chart 1.21 Housing starts by county
Chart 1.22 Labour costs relative to trading partners
Chart 1.23 Emplyment in quarterly national accounts
Chart 1.24 Expected change in employment
Chart 1.25 Unemployment rate
Chart 1.26 Registered unemployment by county
Chart 1.27 Productivity growth
Chart 1.28 Capacity constraints and labour supply constraints as reported by regional network
Chart 1.29 Terms of trade
Chart 1.30 CPI and CPI-ATE. Twelve-month change
Chart 1.31 Selected energy goods in the CPI
Chart 1.32 CPI-ATE. In total and by supplier sector. Twelve-month change
Chart 1.33 Indicator of external price impulses to imported consumer goods
Chart 1.34 CPI-ATE. Actual figures, baseline scenario and projections from SAM
Chart 1.35 Petroleum investment annual change
Chart 1.36 Petroleum investment in billions of NOK
Chart 1.37 Field development projects
Chart 1.38 Structural non-oil deficit and 4% of the Government Pension Fund Global
Chart 1.39 Change in structural non-oil deficit
Chart 2.1 Consumer price index
Chart 2.2a Projected key policy rate in the baseline scenario with fan chart
Chart 2.2b Projected output gap in the baseline scenario with fan chart
Chart 2.2c Projected CPI in the baseline scenario with fan chart
Chart 2.2d Projected CPI-ATE in the baseline scenario with fan chart
Chart 2.3 Interest rates in the baseline scenario
Chart 2.4 Real money market interest rate
Chart 2.5 Money market rate differential between Norway and trading partners, and the import-weighted exchange rate index (I-44)
Chart 2.6 Inflation and output gap in the baseline scenario
Chart 2.7 Expected consumer price inflation 2 and 5 years ahead
Chart 2.8 GDP for mainland Norway
Chart 2.9 Petroleum investment as a share of GDP
Chart 2.10 Unemployment in percent of labour force
Chart 2.11 Labour cost share for mainland Norway
Chart 2.12 Annual wage growth
Chart 2.13 Household consumption and real disposable income
Chart 2.14 Household saving and net lending as a share of disposable income
Chart 2.15 Private investment
Chart 2.16 Business investment as a share of GDP
Chart 2.17 Housing investment as a share of GDP
Chart 2.18 Growth in exports from mainland Norway and imports to Norway's trading partners
Chart 2.19 Household debt and house prices
Chart 2.20 Households debt ratio and interest burden
Chart 2.21 Three-month money market rate in the baseline scenario and estimated forward rates
Chart 2.22 Key policy rate and interest rate path that follows from Norges Bank’s average pattern of interest rate setting
Chart 2.23a Key policy rate in the baseline scenario from MPR 3/16
Chart 2.23b Money market rate conditional on the key policy rate in the baseline scenario from MPR 3/16
Chart 2.23c Output gap conditional on the key policy rate in the baseline scenario from MPR 3/16
Chart 2.23d CPI-ATE conditional on the key policy rate in the baseline scenario from MPR 3/16
Chart 2.24 Key policy rate
Chart 2.25 Factors behind changes in the interest rate path since MPR 3/16
Chart 3.1 House prices relative to disposable income
Chart 3.2 Change in house prices
Chart 3.3 Share of population living in regions with house price inflation above a certain level
Chart 3.4 House price-to-rent ratio
Chart 3.5 Increase in the number of households and number of housing starts
Chart 3.6 Total credit mainland Norway as a share of mainland GDP
Chart 3.7 Household interest burden and debt service ratio
Chart 3.8 Share of approved mortgages with an LTV of more than 85%, liquidity shortfall and interest-only terms
Chart 3.9 Credit to non-financial enterprises
Chart 3.10 Equity ratio for listed companies
Chart 3.11 Price-to-book ratio, listed companies
Chart 3.12 Banks' loan losses as a share of gross lending
Chart 3.13 Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratios
Chart 3.14 House prices in selected countries
Chart 3.15 House prices in selected cities
Chart 3.16 Credit gap
Chart 3.17 Decomposed credit gap
Chart 3.18 Reference rates for the countercyclical capital buffer
Chart 3.19 House price gap
Chart 3.20 Real commercial property prices
Chart 3.21 Commercial property price gap
Chart 3.22 Banks' wholesale funding ratio
Chart 3.23 Wholesale funding gap
Chart 3.24 Estimated crisis probabilities based on various model specifications
Chart 1 UK and US. Unemployment as a share of the labour force
Chart 2 UK and US. Employment and participation rate as a share of the working-age population
Chart 3 Current account balance as share of GDP
Chart 4 Euro area. Housing investment, building permits and house prices
Chart 5 Euro area. GDP. Confidence indicators
Chart 6 Sweden. Confidence indicators
Chart 7 China. Investment in selected sectors
Chart 8 Current account balance as a share of GDP in selected emerging market economies
Chart 1a Estimated Okun's law based on unemployment in NAV
Chart 1b Estimated Okun's law based on unemployment in LFS
Chart 2 Okun coefficients for selected countries
Chart 3 Labour force and LFS employment
Chart 4 Norges Bank's output gap and capacity constraints as reported by the regional network
Chart 5 Norges Bank's output gap and employment rate gap
Chart 6 Norges Bank's output gap and measure of capacity utilisation from employment data