http://www.norges-bank.no/
Monetary policy report 3/17
with financial stability assessment
Index
Chart 1.1a Projected key policy rate with fan chart and projected key policy rate in MPR 2/17
Chart 1.1b Projected output gap with fan chart and projections of output gap from MPR 2/17
Chart 1.1c Projected CPI with fan chart and projected CPI from MPR 2/17
Chart 1.1d Projected CPI-ATE with fan chart and projected CPI-ATE from MPR 2/17
Chart 1.2 GDP for trading partners. Annual growth
Chart 1.3 Money market rates for trading partners
Chart 1.4 Oil price. USD/barrel
Chart 1.5 Money market rate differential between Norway and trading partners, and the import-weighted exchange rate index (I-44)
Chart 1.6 GDP and Regional network's indicator for output growth
Chart 1.7 Growth in employment in the QNA and the regional network
Chart 1.8 House prices
Chart 1.9 GDP for mainland Norway
Chart 1.10 Petroleum investment. Annual change
Chart 1.11 Change in structural non-oil deficit as a share of trend GDP for mainland Norway
Chart 1.12 Unemployment as a share of the labour force
Chart 2.1 GDP for Norway's trading partners
Chart 2.2 Global confidence indicators
Chart 2.3 Core CPI in selected countries
Chart 2.4 Yields on ten-year government bonds in selected countries
Chart 2.5 Policy rates and estimated forward rates in selected countries
Chart 2.6 Equity price indexes in selected countries
Chart 2.7 Investment in the US
Chart 2.8 GDP for selected countries in the euro area
Chart 2.9 Wage growth in the UK
Chart 2.10 Investment in Sweden
Chart 2.11 GDP in China
Chart 2.12 Balance in the global oil market
Chart 2.13 Active rigs and crude oil production in the US
Chart 3.1 Kliem og nibor
Chart 3.2 Interest rates
Chart 3.3 Money market rates and lending rates for households and non-financial enterprises
Chart 3.4 Oil price and import-weighted exchange rate index (I-44)
Chart 3.5 Output percentage change as reported by regional network
Chart 3.6 GDP for mainland Norway and regional network's indicator for output growth
Chart 3.7 Households' consupmtion of goods and services
Chart 3.8 Consumer confidence
Chart 3.9 Household consumption and real disposable income
Chart 3.10 Household saving and net lending as a share of disposable income
Chart 3.11 House prices
Chart 3.12 Housing investment and house prices
Chart 3.13 Expected profitability and investment
Chart 3.14 Business investment and GDP
Chart 3.15 Housing, petroleum and business investments as a share of GDP for mainland Norway
Chart 3.16 Growth in exports from mainland Norway and imports to Norway's trading partners
Chart 3.17 Sysselsetting i KNR nå og sist samt i AKU
Chart 3.18 Expected change in employment
Chart 3.19 Registrert ledighet, sum ledige og på tiltak pluss AKU-ledighet
Chart 3.20 Registered unemployment by county
Chart 3.21 Ledige stillinger
Chart 3.22 Labour force participation rates. Labour force as a share of the population
Chart 3.23 Employment in LFS and QNA
Chart 3.24 Capacity constraints and labour supply constraints as reported by regional network
Chart 3.25 CPI-ATE by supplier sector. Twelve-month change
Chart 3.26 Wages and goods and services produced in Norway in the CPI-ATE
Chart 3.27 Wages, prices for services where wages dominate and domestically produced goods
Chart 3.28 CPI-ATE in MPR 3/17 with fan chart
Chart 3.29 Wage, wage norm and wage expectations. Annual growth
Chart 3.30 Annual wage growth
Chart 3.31 Labour share for mainland Norway
Chart 3.32 Productivity and real wage
Chart 3.33 CPI-ATE. Four-quarter change
Chart 3.34 Indikatorer for underliggende inflasjon
Chart 3.35 Expected inflation five years ahead
Chart 3.36 Structural non-oil deficit and 3% of the Government Pension Fund Global
Chart 3.37 Public sector demand and GDP for mainland Norway
Chart 3.38 Petroleum investment in billions of NOK
Chart 3.39 Field development projects in billions of NOK
Chart 4.1 Consumer price index
Chart 4.2 Yields on 10-year government bonds. 14 OECD countries
Chart 4.3a Projections for the key policy rate from MPR 2/17
Chart 4.3b CPI-ATE conditional on projections for the key policy rate from MPR 2/17
Chart 4.3c Output gap conditional on projections for the key policy rate from MPR 2/17
Chart 4.4a Projected key policy rate with fan chart
Chart 4.4b Projected output gap with fan chart
Chart 4.4c Projected CPI with fan chart
Chart 4.4d Projected CPI-ATE with fan chart
Chart 4.5 Key policy rate projections
Chart 4.6 Factors behind the change in key policy forecast from latest MPR
Chart 4.7 Three-month money market rate in the baseline scenario and estimated forward rates
Chart 4.8 Key policy rate and interest rate path that follows from Norges Bank’s average pattern of interest rate setting
Chart 1 Shock decomposition
Chart 5.1 CET1 capital ratios for the largest EU banks
Chart 5.2 Credit mainland Norway as a share of mainland GDP
Chart 5.3 Decomposed credit gap
Chart 5.4 Household interest burden and debt service ratio
Chart 5.5 Credit demand and banks' credit standards - households
Chart 5.6 Distribution of debt by loan-to-value ratio
Chart 5.7 Credit to households and nonfinancial enterprises in mainland Norway
Chart 5.8 Credit to non-financial enterprises, by source
Chart 5.9 Credit from banks and mortage companies
Chart 5.10 Debt-servicing capacity for listed companies
Chart 5.11 House prices relative to disposable income
Chart 5.12 Change in house prices - Norway
Chart 5.13 Change in house prices - large Norwegian cities
Chart 5.14 Estimated price per square metre in Oslo relative to other cities
Chart 5.15 New home sales
Chart 5.16 Housing starts and completions
Chart 5.17 Office vacancy rates in Oslo and Bærum
Chart 5.18 CET1 capital ratios and targets for large Norwegian banks
Chart 5.19 Corporate lending by banks and mortgage companies
Chart 5.20 House prices in selected countries and capitals
Chart 5.21 Credit gap
Chart 5.22 Reference rates for the countercyclical capital buffer
Chart 5.23 House price gap
Chart 5.24 Real commercial property prices
Chart 5.25 Commercial property price gap
Chart 5.26 Banks' wholesale funding ratio
Chart 5.27 Wholesale funding gap
Chart 5.28 Estimated crisis probabilities based on various model specifications