http://www.norges-bank.no/
Monetary policy report 4/17
with financial stability assessment
Index
Chart 1.1a Projected key policy rate with fan chart
Chart 1.1b Projected output gap with fan chart
Chart 1.1c Projected CPI with fan chart
Chart 1.1d Projected CPI-ATE with fan chart
Chart 1.2 GDP for Norway's trading partners
Chart 1.3 Money market rates for Norway's trading partners
Chart 1.4 Oil price. USD/barrel
Chart 1.5 Oil price and import-weighted exchange rate index (I-44)
Chart 1.6 GDP and Regional network's indicator for output growth
Chart 1.7 Growth in employment in the QNA and the regional network
Chart 1.8 Money market rate differential between Norway and trading partners, and the import-weighted exchange rate index (I-44)
Chart 1.9 GDP for mainland Norway
Chart 1.10 Petroleum investment. Annual change
Chart 1.11 Unemployment as a share of the labour force
Chart 2.1 Global confidence indicators
Chart 2.2 Policy rates and estimated forward rates in selected countries
Chart 2.3 Core inflation and inflation targets in selected countries
Chart 2.4 Yields on ten-year government bonds in selected countries
Chart 2.5 Imports for Norway's trading partners
Chart 2.6 Indicator of external inflationary impulses to imported consumer goods (IPC)
Chart 2.7 Real wages and productivity in the US
Chart 2.8 Unemployment in selected euro area countries
Chart 2.9 Unemployment and employment growth in the UK
Chart 2.10 Unemployment and employment rate in Sweden
Chart 2.11 PMI in emerging markets
Chart 2.12 Total OECD oil inventories
Chart 2.13 Active rigs and crude oil production in the US
Chart 3.1 Three-month money market premium
Chart 3.2 Interest rates
Chart 3.3 Bonds
Chart 3.4 Cross-check for the krone exchange rate
Chart 3.5 Output percentage change as reported by regional network
Chart 3.6 GDP for mainland Norway and regional network's indicator for output growth
Chart 3.7 Household saving and net lending as a share of disposable income
Chart 3.8 Households' consupmtion of goods and services
Chart 3.9 Consumer confidence
Chart 3.10 Household consumption and real disposable income
Chart 3.11 House prices and household debt
Chart 3.12 New and resale homes
Chart 3.13 Housing investment and house prices
Chart 3.14 Corporate investment by sector
Chart 3.15 Expected profitability and investment
Chart 3.16 Business investment and GDP
Chart 3.17 Growth in exports from mainland Norway and imports to Norway's trading partners
Chart 3.18 Employment acording to QNA
Chart 3.19 Employment in selected sectors
Chart 3.20 Expected change in employment
Chart 3.21 Unemployment as a share of the labour force
Chart 3.22 New job seekers per business day
Chart 3.23 Announced downsizing
Chart 3.24 Alternative labour force participation rates
Chart 3.25 Productivity changes
Chart 3.26 Capacity constraints and labour supply constraints as reported by regional network
Chart 3.27 CPI-ATE by supplier sector. Twelve-month change
Chart 3.28 CPIATE by goods and services
Chart 3.29 CPI-ATE in MPR 4/17 with fan chart
Chart 3.30 Indicators of underlying inflation
Chart 3.31 Annual wage growth.
Chart 3.32 Wage, wage norm and wage expectations. Annual growth
Chart 3.33 Annual wage growth
Chart 3.34 CPI-ATE. Four-quarter change
Chart 3.35 Expected inflation five years ahead
Chart 3.36 Structural non-oil deficit and 3% of the Government Pension Fund Global
Chart 3.37 Public sector demand and GDP for mainland Norway
Chart 3.38 Petroleum investment in billions of NOK
Chart 3.39 Field development projects in billions of NOK
Chart 3.40 Real time attributes
Chart 3.41 Model estimated output gap
Chart 4.1 Consumer price index
Chart 4.2 Yields on 10-year government bonds. 14 OECD countries
Chart 4.3a Projections for the key policy rate from MPR 3/17
Chart 4.3b CPI-ATE conditional on new information and key policy rate forecast in MPR 3/17
Chart 4.3c Output gap conditional on new information and key policy rate forecast in MPR 3/17
Chart 4.4a Projected key policy rate with fan chart
Chart 4.4b Projected output gap with fan chart
Chart 4.4c Projected CPI with fan chart
Chart 4.4d Projected CPI-ATE with fan chart
Chart 4.5 Key policy rate projections
Chart 4.6 Factors behind the change in key policy forecast since MPR 3/17
Chart 4.7 Three-month money market rate in the baseline scenario and estimated forward rates
Chart 4.8 Key policy rate and interest rate path that follows from Norges Bank’s average pattern of interest rate setting
Chart 4.9 House prices. Alternative scenario
Chart 4.10 Real house prices and housing investment. Alternative scenario
Chart 4.11 House prices and housing investment. Alternative scenario
Chart 4.12 Output gap. Alternative scenario
Chart 4.13 CPI-ATE. Alternative scenario
Chart 1 Stock of securities
Chart 2 Implied forward rates
Chart 3 Risk premiums on covered bonds
Chart 5.1 VIX Index and SKEW Index
Chart 5.2 Credit mainland Norway as a share of mainland GDP
Chart 5.3 Decomposed credit gap
Chart 5.4 Household debt ratio, debt service ratio and interest burden
Chart 5.5 Credit demand and banks' credit standards – households
Chart 5.6 Credit to households and non­financial enterprises in mainland Norway
Chart 5.7 Domestic credit to non-financial enterprises, by source
Chart 5.8 Debt­servicing capacity for listed companies
Chart 5.9 Estimated credit risk related to the corporate sector
Chart 5.10 House prices relative to disposable income
Chart 5.11 Change in house prices – Norway
Chart 5.12 Change in house prices – large Norwegian cities
Chart 5.13 Stock of unsold existing homes for sale
Chart 5.14 Total new home sales in Norway
Chart 5.15 Commercial property price indicator and selling prices for prime real estate
Chart 5.16 Rents for high­standard office space in central Oslo
Chart 5.17 Banks' loan losses
Chart 5.18 CET1 capital ratios and targets for large Norwegian banks
Chart 5.19 Domestic credit to non-financial enterprises from banks and mortgage companies
Chart 5.20 Composite indicators in the heatmap
Chart 5.21 Credit gap
Chart 5.22 Reference rates for the countercyclical capital buffer
Chart 5.23 House price gap
Chart 5.24 Commercial property price gap
Chart 5.25 Banks' wholesale funding ratio
Chart 5.26 Wholesale funding gap
Chart 5.27 Estimated crisis probabilities based on various model specifications