http://www.norges-bank.no/
Monetary policy report 2/16
with financial stability assessment
Index
Chart 1.1 GDP growth trading partners
Chart 1.2 CPI growth trading partners
Chart 1.3 Crude oil and natural gas prices
Chart 1.4 Oil inventories in OECD countries
Chart 1.5 Key rates and estimated forward rates at 11 March 2016 and 17 June 2016
Chart 1.6 Money market rates for trading partners
Chart 1.7 Yields on 10-year government bonds
Chart 1.8 Oil price and import-weighted exchange rate index (I-44)
Chart 1.9 Residential mortgage interest rates and funding costs
Chart 1.10 Corporate loans interest rate and funding costs
Chart 1.11 Risk premium on new and outstanding bond debt for Norwegian banks
Chart 1.12 Three-month Nibor spread
Chart 1.13 GDP for mainland Norway and regional network's indicator for output growth
Chart 1.14 Recession probability
Chart 1.15 Output growth in regional network
Chart 1.16 Private consumption by different consumption groups
Chart 1.17 Consumer confidence
Chart 1.18 Investment by sector
Chart 1.19 Regional network's indicator for output growth
Chart 1.20 Employment by sector
Chart 1.21 Number of vacancies and number of unemployed
Chart 1.22 Regional network's indicator of expected employment
Chart 1.23 Unemployment rate
Chart 1.24 Registered unemployment by county
Chart 1.25 Capacity constraints and labour availability as reported by regional network
Chart 1.26 Productivity growth in mainland Norway
Chart 1.27 CPI and CPI-ATE. Twelve-month change
Chart 1.28 CPI-ATE. In total and by supplier sector. Twelve-month change
Chart 1.29 Indicator of external price impulses to imported consumer goods
Chart 1.30 CPI-ATE. Actual figures, baseline scenario and projections from SAM
Chart 1.31 Structural non-oil deficit and 4% of the Government Pension Fund Global
Chart 1.32 Change in structural non-oil deficit
Chart 1.33 Number of asylum applications received per month
Chart 1.34 Petroleum investment annual change
Chart 1.35 Petroleum investment in billions of NOK
Chart 1.36 Field development projects
Chart 2.1 Inflation
Chart 2.2 Expected consumer price inflation 2 and 5 years ahead
Chart 2.3 Regional network's indicator for annualised output growth
Chart 2.4a Projected key policy rate in the baseline scenario with fan chart
Chart 2.4b Projected output gap in the baseline scenario with fan chart
Chart 2.4c Projected CPI in the baseline scenario with fan chart
Chart 2.4d Projected CPI-ATE in the baseline scenario with fan chart
Chart 2.5 Interest rates in the baseline scenario
Chart 2.6 GDP mainland Norway
Chart 2.7 Unemployment in percent of labour force
Chart 2.8 Terms of trade
Chart 2.9 Annual wage growth
Chart 2.10 Money market rate differential between Norway and trading partners, and the import-weighted exchange rate index (I-44)
Chart 2.11 Household consumption and real disposable income
Chart 2.12 Household saving and net lending as a share of disposable income
Chart 2.13 Private investment
Chart 2.14 Labour costs relative to trading partners
Chart 2.15 Growth in exports from mainland Norway and imports by Norway's trading partners
Chart 2.16 Three-month money market rate in the baseline scenario and estimated forward rates
Chart 2.17 Key policy rate and interest rate path that follows from Norges Bank’s average pattern of interest rate setting
Chart 2.18a The key policy rate in the baseline scenario from MPR 1/16
Chart 2.18b Output gap conditional on the key policy rate in the baseline scenario from MPR 1/16
Chart 2.18c CPI-ATE conditional on the key policy rate in the baseline scenario from MPR 1/16
Chart 2.19 Inflation and output gap in the baseline scenario
Chart 2.20 Key policy rate
Chart 2.21 Factors behind changes in the interest rate path since MPR 1/16
Chart 3.1 Total credit mainland Norway as a share of mainland GDP
Chart 3.2 Debt held by households and non-financial enterprises and mainland GDP
Chart 3.3 Household debt and house prices
Chart 3.4 Change in credit demand and banks' credit standards - households
Chart 3.5 Household debt ratio, debt service ratio and interest burden
Chart 3.6 Share of households with a ratio of debt to disposable income of more than 500% by age of primary wage-earner
Chart 3.7 Share of approved mortgages with a loan-to-value (LTV) ratio of more than 85%, liquidity shortfall and interest-only terms
Chart 3.8 House prices relative to disposable income
Chart 3.9 Change in house prices
Chart 3.10 Number of housing starts and changes in number of households per county
Chart 3.11 Real commercial real estate prices
Chart 3.12 Office values in selected cities
Chart 3.13 Total credit to non-financial enterprises
Chart 3.14 Credit from selected funding sources to Norwegian non-financial enterprises
Chart 3.15 Changes in credit demand and banks' credit standards - enterprises
Chart 3.16 Debt-servicing capacity for listed companies
Chart 3.17 Return on equity for Norwegian banks
Chart 3.18 Banks' loan losses as a share of gross lending
Chart 3.19 Banking groups' Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ratios
Chart 3.20 Banks' wholesale funding as a share of total assets
Chart 3.21 Norwegian banks' foreign exposures
Chart 3.22a Credit gap
Chart 3.22b House price gap
Chart 3.22c Commercial real estate price gap
Chart 3.22d Wholesale funding gap
Chart 3.23 Estimated crisis probabilities from various model specifications
Chart 3.24 Reference rates for the countercyclical capital buffer
Chart 1 Contribution to GDP growth in the US
Chart 2 Financial conditions index for the euro area
Chart 3 Unemployment rate in euro countries
Chart 4 GDP and PMI in the UK
Chart 5 GDP and imports Sweden
Chart 6 Contribution to GDP growth in China
Chart 7 Profit in the manufacturing sector in China
Chart 1 Productivity growth. Actual and trend
Chart 2 GDP growth for mainland Norway
Chart 3 Productivity growth in OECD and Norway
Chart 4 Population growth because of immigration
Chart 1 Projected and actual path GDP mainland Norway 2015
Chart 2 Projected and actual path CPI-ATE 2015