The output gap reflects our assessment of overall capacity utilisation in the economy in relation to a normal level. A positive output gap is normally referred to as a boom, while a negative output gap indicates that there is scarce capacity in the economy.

Norges Banks projections for the output gap is discussed further in the Monetary Policy Report.

References

Model estimates of the output gap
(Staff Memo 4/2018)

Norges Bank output gap estimates: Forecasting properties, reliability and cyclical sensitivity
(Working paper 7/2020)