Contacts expect stable activity growth through the first half of 2025, and growth expectations for Q1 have been revised up slightly from the previous survey. Increased defence investment and high order levels in maritime industries are lifting growth prospects. In addition, contacts in retail trade and services expect an improvement in households’ spending power. The krone exchange rate has strengthened the competitiveness of Norwegian firms, which many contacts expect will boost activity further in the period to summer. A number of contacts point out that international trade conflicts are leading to heightened uncertainty, but few expect this to dampen activity in the first half of 2025.

The share of contacts reporting full capacity utilisation increased from 34 percent in the previous survey to 35 percent in this survey, while the share of contacts reporting recruitment difficulties is unchanged. Contacts are planning to increase workforces in both 2025 Q1 and Q2.

Contacts expect wage growth of 4.4 percent in 2025, down slightly from 4.5 percent in the previous survey. There are minor differences across industries. On the whole, profitability among contacts has improved compared with one year ago.

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