Regional Network: Increased exports support growth, but construction activity continues to decline
Regional Network contacts expect activity to rise through winter, but developments across industries still vary widely. Capacity utilisation is little changed since 2024 Q3, and there are approximately as many contacts reporting labour shortages as in the previous survey. Contacts have revised up their estimate for wage growth in 2025 from 4.3 percent in the previous survey to 4.5 percent in this survey.
Contacts expect activity to increase further in 2024 Q4 and 2025 Q1. Activity growth expectations in 2024 Q4 are little changed since the previous survey. At the same time, contacts expect activity growth to pick up slightly in 2025 Q1. Oil service contacts expect high growth through winter. However, construction and retail trade contacts expect a decline. Manufacturing contacts expect a rise in exports to boost growth, while corporate demand in particular is improving prospects in services.
Since the previous survey, the share of contacts reporting full capacity utilisation has remained unchanged. The share of contacts reporting recruitment difficulties is also unchanged since the previous survey. Contacts are planning for an increase in employment in both 2024 Q4 and 2025 Q1.
Contacts expect annual wage growth to be 5.2 percent in 2024, as in the previous survey. However, annual wage growth projections for 2025 have been revised up from 4.3 to 4.5 percent in this survey. On the whole, enterprises report slightly weaker profitability compared with 2023 Q4.
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