Overall, contacts expect virtually unchanged activity through the first half of 2024. There are unusually wide differences across sectors even though the dispersion has diminished somewhat since the previous survey. Contacts in oil services and services expect activity to increase ahead, while contacts in construction expect a substantial fall. In manufacturing and retail trade, contacts expect a decline in activity in Q1. In Q2, manufacturing contacts expect stable developments and retail trade contacts expect a less pronounced decline.

Both the share of contacts reporting full capacity utilisation and the share reporting labour shortages remain unchanged since the previous survey, after falling over the past two years. Employment plans for 2024 Q1 have been revised up slightly since the previous survey, and contacts now expect weak employment growth in Q1. Furthermore, contacts expect a slight rise in employment through spring.

Contacts expect annual wage growth of 4.9 percent in 2024, which is an upward revision from the 4.5 percent estimate in November. Wage growth expectations for 2024 have been revised up in all sectors since the previous survey.