http://www.norges-bank.no/
Monetary policy report 1/17
with financial stability assessment
Index
Chart 1.1a Projected key policy rate with fan chart and projected key policy rate in MPR 4/16
Chart 1.1b Projected output gap with fan chart and projections of output gap from MPR 4/16
Chart 1.1c Projected CPI with fan chart and projected CPI from MPR 4/16
Chart 1.1d Projected CPI-ATE with fan chart and projected CPI-ATE from MPR 4/16
Chart 1.2 GDP for trading partners. Annual growth
Chart 1.3 Money market rates for trading partners
Chart 1.4 Oil price. USD/barrel
Chart 1.5 GDP and Regional network's indicator for output growth
Chart 1.6 Employment freqency in LFS
Chart 1.7 House prices relative to disposable income
Chart 1.8 Public sector demand
Chart 1.9 CPI and CPI-JAE. Annual change
Chart 1.10 Wages and wage expectations
Chart 1.11 Money market rate differential between Norway and trading partners, and the import-weighted exchange rate index (I-44)
Chart 1.12 GDP for mainland Norway
Chart 1.13 Unemployment as a share of the labour force
Chart 2.1 Global GDP and GDP for Norway's trading partners
Chart 2.2 Manufacturing PMI for Norway's trading partners
Chart 2.3 CPI in selected advanced economies
Chart 2.4 Policy rates and estimated forward rates
Chart 2.5 Yields on ten-year government bonds
Chart 2.6 US GDP and selected economic tendency indicators
Chart 2.7 Four-quarter change in US GDP
Chart 2.8 Loans to households and non-financial enterprises in the euro area
Chart 2.9 UK consumer confidence
Chart 2.10 Consumer confidence in Sweden
Chart 2.11 GDP in China
Chart 2.12 Oil inventories in OECD countries
Chart 2.13 Spot and futures prices of natural gas
Chart 3.1 Three month money market spread
Chart 3.2 Three-month Nibor spread
Chart 3.3 Interest rates
Chart 3.4 Risk premium on new and outstanding bond debt for Norwegian banks
Chart 3.5 Oil price and import-weighted exchange rate index (I-44)
Chart 3.6 Output growth in regional network
Chart 3.7 GDP for mainland Norway and regional network's indicator for output growth
Chart 3.8 Households' consupmtion of goods and services
Chart 3.9 Consumer confidence
Chart 3.10 Household consumption and real disposable income
Chart 3.11 Household saving and net lending as a share of disposable income
Chart 3.12 Households debt ratio and interest burden
Chart 3.13 Household debt and house prices
Chart 3.14 Housing starts by county
Chart 3.15 Private investment
Chart 3.16 Petroleum investment. Annual change
Chart 3.17 Contributions to growth in business investment in mainland Norway
Chart 3.18 Labour costs relative to trading partners
Chart 3.19 Growth in exports from mainland Norway and imports to Norway's trading partners
Chart 3.20 Employed persons in the quarterly national accounts and the LFS
Chart 3.21 Expected change in employment
Chart 3.22 Labour force participation rates. Labour force as a share of the population
Chart 3.23 Registered unemployed and new ordinary job seekers per business day
Chart 3.24 Changes in labour force following changes in population
Chart 3.25 Capacity constraints and labour supply constraints as reported by regional network
Chart 3.26 Output gap
Chart 3.27 CPI and CPI-ATE. Twelve-month change
Chart 3.28 CPI-ATE by supplier sector
Chart 3.29 Selected energy products in the CPI
Chart 3.30 Indicator of external price impulses to imported consumer goods
Chart 3.31 Årslønnsveksten i forhandlingsområdene i 2016
Chart 3.32 Annual wage growth
Chart 3.33 Labour cost share for mainland Norway
Chart 3.34 CPI-ATE in MPR 1/17 with fan chart
Chart 3.35 CPI and CPI-ATE. Four-quarter change
Chart 3.36 Expected consumer price inflation 2 and 5 years ahead
Chart 3.37 Expected consumer price inflation 5 years ahead among different actors
Chart 3.38 Structural non-oil deficit as share of trend GDP for mainland Norway and the Government Pension Fund Global (GPFG)
Chart 3.39 Structural non-oil deficit and 4% of the Government Pension Fund Global
Chart 3.40 Petroleum investment in billions of NOK
Chart 3.41 Field development projects
Chart 4.1 Consumer price index
Chart 4.2 Yields on 10-year government bonds. 14 OECD countries
Chart 4.3a Projections for the key policy rate from MPR 4/16
Chart 4.3b CPI-ATE conditional on projections for the key policy rate from MPR 4/16
Chart 4.3c Output gap conditional on projections for the key policy rate from MPR 4/16
Chart 4.4a Projected key policy rate with fan chart
Chart 4.4b Projected output gap with fan chart
Chart 4.4c Projected CPI with fan chart
Chart 4.4d Projected CPI-ATE with fan chart
Chart 4.5 Key policy rate projections
Chart 4.6 Factors behind the change in key policy forecast from latest MPR
Chart 4.7 Three-month money market rate and estimated forward rates
Chart 4.8 Key policy rate and interest rate path that follows from Norges Bank’s average pattern of interest rate setting
Chart 5.1 Credit mainland Norway as a share of mainland GDP
Chart 5.2 Decomposed credit gap
Chart 5.3 Household interest burden and debt service ratio
Chart 5.4 Changes in credit demand and banks' credit standards – households
Chart 5.5 Credit to non-financial enterprises
Chart 5.6 Foreign debt by credit sources
Chart 5.7 Debt-servicing capacity for listed companies
Chart 5.8 House prices relative to disposable income
Chart 5.9 Change in house prices
Chart 5.10 New home sales
Chart 5.11 Real commercial property prices
Chart 5.12 Office rents in selected cities
Chart 5.13 Banks' loan losses as a share of gross lending
Chart 5.14 Banks' leverage ratio
Chart 5.15 Banks' wholesale funding ratio
Chart 5.16 Credit gap
Chart 5.17 Reference rates for the countercyclical capital buffer
Chart 5.18 House price gap
Chart 5.19 Commercial property price gap
Chart 5.20 Wholesale funding gap
Chart 5.21 Estimated crisis probabilities based on various model specifications