http://www.norges-bank.no/
Monetary policy report 2/18
with financial stability assessment
Index
Chart 1.1a Key policy rate with fan chart
Chart 1.1b Projected output gap with fan chart
Chart 1.1c CPI with fan chart
Chart 1.1d CPI-ATE with fan chart
Chart 1.2 Oil price. USD/barrel
Chart 1.3 GDP for Norway's trading partners
Chart 1.4 Three-month money market rates for Norway's trading partners
Chart 1.5 GDP and Regional network's indicator for output growth
Chart 1.6 Growth in employment in the QNA and the regional network
Chart 1.7 Interest rates
Chart 1.8 Money market rate differential between Norway and trading partners, and the import-weighted exchange rate index (I-44)
Chart 1.9 GDP for mainland Norway
Chart 1.10 Petroleum investment
Chart 1.11 Unemployment according to LFS and NAV
Chart 1.12 Wages
Chart 2.1 Global confidence indicators
Chart 2.2 Policy rates and estimated forward rates in selected countries
Chart 2.3 Yields on ten-year government bonds in selected countries
Chart 2.4 Equity price indexes in selected countries
Chart 2.5 Imports for Norway's trading partners
Chart 2.6 Headline and core CPI in selected countries
Chart 2.7 Wage growth and estimated output gap in selected countries
Chart 2.8 Indicator of international inflationary impulses to imported consumer goods (IPC)
Chart 2.9 Private investment and contribution from investment in mining structures in the US
Chart 2.10 Labour shortages in selected countries in the euro area
Chart 2.11 Employment and unemployment in the UK
Chart 2.12 Total OECD oil inventories
Chart 2.13 Difference between US oil benchmarks
Chart 3.1 Norwegian three-month money market premium
Chart 3.2 Oil price and import-weighted exchange rate index (I-44)
Chart 3.3 Output growth as reported by the Regional Network
Chart 3.4 GDP for mainland Norway and Regional Network's indicator for output growth
Chart 3.5 Consumer confidence
Chart 3.6 Household consumption and real disposable income
Chart 3.7 Household saving and net lending as a share of disposable income
Chart 3.8 House prices and household debt ratio
Chart 3.9 Housing investment
Chart 3.10 Expected change in business investment
Chart 3.11 Business investment for mainland Norway and GDP for mainland Norway
Chart 3.12 Labour costs relative to trading partners
Chart 3.13 Growth in exports from mainland Norway and imports to Norway's trading partners
Chart 3.14 Employment acording to QNA
Chart 3.15 Job vacancies
Chart 3.16 Unemployment as a share of the labour force
Chart 3.17 Employment rate
Chart 3.18 Capacity constraints and labour supply constraints as reported by Regional Network
Chart 3.19 Model estimated output gap
Chart 3.20 Productivity
Chart 3.21 CPI, CPI-ATE and energy prices
Chart 3.22 CPI-ATE by supplier sector
Chart 3.23 Wage, wage norm and wage expectations
Chart 3.24 Wage growth in Norway and for main trading partners
Chart 3.25 Labour share for mainland Norway.
Chart 3.26 CPI-ATE in MPR 2/18 with fan chart
Chart 3.27 Domestically produced goods and services in CPI-ATE
Chart 3.28 Indicators of underlying inflation
Chart 3.29 Expected inflation five years ahead
Chart 3.30 Structural non-oil deficit and 3% of the Government Pension Fund Global
Chart 3.31 Public sector demand
Chart 3.32 Petroleum investment
Chart 3.33 Field development projects
Chart 4.1 Consumer price index
Chart 4.2 GDP for mainland Norway and employment.
Chart 4.3 Real interest rate and nominal interest rate
Chart 4.4a CPI-ATE conditional on new information and key policy rate forecast in MPR 1/18
Chart 4.4b Output gap conditional on new information and key policy rate forecast in MPR 1/18
Chart 4.5a Projected key policy rate with fan chart
Chart 4.5b Projected output gap with fan chart
Chart 4.5c Projected CPI with fan chart
Chart 4.5d Projected CPI-ATE with fan chart
Chart 4.6 Key policy rate projections
Chart 4.7 Real interest rate
Chart 4.8 Factors behind the change in the key policy rate since the last MPR
Chart 4.9 Three-month money market rate in the baseline scenario and estimated forward rates
Chart 1 Long-term interest rates. 14 OECD countries
Chart 2 Market based estimates
Chart 3 Estimates
Chart 5.1 Public sector debt as a share of GDP in selected countries
Chart 5.2 Yields on 10-year government bonds in selected euro area countries
Chart 5.3 Credit mainland Norway as a share of mainland GDP
Chart 5.4 Decomposed credit gap
Chart 5.5 Credit to households and nonfinancial enterprises in mainland Norway
Chart 5.6 Household debt ratio, debt service ratio and interest burden
Chart 5.7 Bank and mortgage company lending to Norwegian non-financial enterprises by industry
Chart 5.8 Lending to Norwegian non-financial enterprises in the Norwegian bond market by industry
Chart 5.9 Debt-servicing capacity and equity ratio of listed companies
Chart 5.10 Estimated credit risk by industry
Chart 5.11 House prices relative to disposable income
Chart 5.12 Change in house prices – Norway
Chart 5.13 Change in house prices – Norwegian cities
Chart 5.14 Existing homes listed for sale
Chart 5.15 Stock of unsold existing homes
Chart 5.16 New home sales
Chart 5.17 Real commercial property prices
Chart 5.18 Office property values in Oslo
Chart 5.19 Return on equity for large Norwegian banks
Chart 5.20 CET1 capital ratios and targets for large Norwegian banks
Chart 5.21 Bank and mortgage company lending to non-financial enterprises by banks and mortgage companies
Chart 5.22 Effects of break in domestic credit to households and enterprises