http://www.norges-bank.no/
Monetary policy report 1/16
with financial stability assessment
Index
Chart 1.1 GDP growth trading partners
Chart 1.2 Unemployment in selected countries
Chart 1.3 Economic developments in the euro area
Chart 1.4 Corporate investment US
Chart 1.5 Contribution to GDP growth in China
Chart 1.6 Chinese currency reserves
Chart 1.7 Oil prices and consumer prices among trading partners
Chart 1.8 Crude oil and natural gas prices
Chart 1.9 Oil inventories in OECD countries
Chart 1.10 Supply and demand in the oil market
Chart 1.11 Yields on 10-year government bonds
Chart 1.12 Selected equity indices
Chart 1.13 Risk premium in European banking sector
Chart 1.14 Key rates and estimated forward rates at 11 December 2015 and 11 March 2016
Chart 1.15 Money market rates for trading partners
Chart 1.16 Oil price and import-weighted exchange rate index (I-44)
Chart 1.17 Three-month Nibor spread
Chart 1.18 Premiums in USD Libor
Chart 1.19 Risk premium on new and outstanding bond debt for Norwegian banks
Chart 1.20 Lending rates to companies and households
Chart 1.21 GDP for mainland Norway. Actual figures, baseline scenario and projections from SAM
Chart 1.22 GDP for mainland Norway and Norges Banks regional networks indicator
Chart 1.23 Consumer confidence and private consumption
Chart 1.24 Funding costs non-financial enterprises
Chart 1.25 Norges Bank's regional network indicator for output growth
Chart 1.26 Export of various goods and services
Chart 1.27 Employment by sector
Chart 1.28 Number of vacancies and number of unemployed
Chart 1.29 Regional network's indicator for expected employment
Chart 1.30 Unemployment rate
Chart 1.31 Registered unemployment by county
Chart 1.32 Capacity constraints and labour availability as reported by Norges Bank's regional network
Chart 1.33 CPI and CPI-ATE. Twelve-month change
Chart 1.34 CPI-ATE. By supplier sector. Twelve-month change
Chart 1.35 Indicator of external price impulses to imported consumer goods
Chart 1.36 CPI-ATE. Actual figures, baseline scenario and projections from SAM
Chart 1.37 Structural non-oil deficit and 4% of the Government Pension Fund Global
Chart 1.38 Number of asylum applications received per month
Chart 1.39 Petroleum investment annual change
Chart 1.40 Petroleum investment in billions of NOK
Chart 1.41 Field development projects
Chart 2.1 Inflation. 10-year moving average
Chart 2.2 Expected consumer price inflation 2 and 5 years ahead
Chart 2.3 Expected output growth next six months in Norges Bank's regional network
Chart 2.4a Projected key policy rate in the baseline scenario with fan chart
Chart 2.4b Projected output gap in the baseline scenario with fan chart
Chart 2.4c Projected CPI in the baseline scenario with fan chart
Chart 2.4d Projected CPI-ATE in the baseline scenario with fan chart
Chart 2.5 GDP mainland Norway
Chart 2.6 Unemployment in percent of labour force
Chart 2.7 Terms of trade
Chart 2.8 Annual wage growth
Chart 2.9 Money market rate differential between Norway and trading partners, and the import-weighted exchange rate index (I-44)
Chart 2.10 Household consumption and real disposable income
Chart 2.11 Household saving and net lending as a share of disposable income
Chart 2.12 Private investment
Chart 2.13 Labour costs relative to trading partners
Chart 2.14 Growth in exports from mainland Norway and imports by Norway's trading partners
Chart 2.15 Household debt and house prices
Chart 2.16 Households debt ratio and interest burden
Chart 2.17 Projected key policy rate, 3-month money market rate, lending rates on household loans and foreign money market rates in the baseline scenario
Chart 2.18 Three-month money market rate in the baseline scenario and estimated forward rates
Chart 2.19 Key policy rate and interest rate developments that follow from Norges Bank’s average pattern of interest rate setting
Chart 2.20 Inflation and output gap in the baseline scenario
Chart 2.21 Key policy rate
Chart 2.22 Factors behind changes in the interest rate path since MPR 4/15
Chart 3.1 Total credit as a share of mainland GDP
Chart 3.2 Debt held by households and non-financial enterprises and mainland GDP
Chart 3.3 Change in credit to households
Chart 3.4 Change in credit demand and banks' credit standards - households
Chart 3.5 Lending rates and interest burden
Chart 3.6 Change in house prices
Chart 3.7 House prices relative to disposable income
Chart 3.8 Sales of existing homes, homes for sale and selling times in days
Chart 3.9 Change in house prices in selected cities
Chart 3.10 Unemployment and twelve-month house price inflation for Oslo and Rogaland county
Chart 3.11 Domestic credit to Norwegian nonfinancial enterprises from banks and mortgage companies decomposed in NOK and other currencies
Chart 3.12 Changes in credit demand and banks' credit standards - enterprises
Chart 3.13 Change in credit from selected funding sources to Norwegian non-financial enterprises
Chart 3.14 Volume of bond issues from Norwegian registered non-financial enterprises in the Norwegian bond market
Chart 3.15 Debt-servicing capacity for listed companies
Chart 3.16 Price-to-book ratio, listed companies
Chart 3.17 Real commercial real estate prices
Chart 3.18 Rental prices for office premises in selected cities
Chart 3.19 Required return for the most attractive office premises in Oslo and 10-year swap rate
Chart 3.20 Risk premiums for attractive premises in selected major European cities
Chart 3.21 Value of office premises in selected cities
Chart 3.22 Return on equity for Norwegian banks
Chart 3.23 Banks' loan losses as a share of gross lending
Chart 3.24 Banking groups' Common Equity Tier 1 capital ratios
Chart 3.25 Banks' wholesale funding as a share of total assets
Chart 3.26 Decomposition of banks' wholesale funding
Chart 3.27 Exposures in other countries
Chart 3.28a Credit gap
Chart 3.28b House price gap
Chart 3.28c Commercial real estate price gap
Chart 3.28d Wholesale funding gap
Chart 3.29 Estimated crisis probabilities from various model specifications
Chart 3.30 Reference rates for the countercyclical capital buffer
Chart 1 Private sector credit as a share of GDP
Chart 2 Effective nominal exchange rate in commodity-exporting emerging economies
Chart 3 Exports to China as a share of total exports
Chart 4 Effect on GDP-growth
Chart 5 Effect on oil price
Chart 1 Spot and longest futures price
Chart 2 Real oil price and Saudi Arabian crude oil production
Chart 3 Oil market balance
Chart 1 Projected output gap
Chart 2 Phases of the business cycle
Chart 3 Recession periods in Norway and GDP for mainland Norway
Chart 4 Recession probability estimated in real time
Chart 1 Money market rates
Chart 2 Household deposit rates
Chart 3 Money market rates and deposit rates for households and enterprises