Norges Bank

Staff Memo

Estimates of the neutral rate of interest in Norway

Author:
Leif Brubakk, Jon Ellingsen and Ørjan Robstad
Series:
Staff Memo
Number:
7/2018

In this paper, we estimate the neutral real rate for the Norwegian economy using two different empirical models, a vector autoregressive model with time-varying parameters (TVP-VAR) and a State-Space (SS) model similar to the Laubach-Williams model, respectively. In line with international evidence, all estimates indicate a falling trend. Furthermore, the estimates for Norway suggest that the Norwegian neutral short-term money market rate is now close to 0 percent in real terms.

Staff Memo inneholder utredninger og dokumentasjon skrevet av Norges Banks ansatte og andre forfattere tilknyttet Norges Bank. Synspunkter og konklusjoner i arbeidene er ikke nødvendigvis representative for Norges Bank.

ISSN 1504-2596 (online)

Published 22 August 2018 16:00
Published 22 August 2018 16:00